Blackjack: Drawing Strategy
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The banker's plays are compulsory, but your strategy isn't. In fact, the values of the banker's first and subsequent cards lead to some fairly complex analysis.
Seeing one of the banker's cards makes a huge difference. Think about it this way: if the banker has a high card showing — say, a 9, 10, jack, queen, king, or ace — his chance of having a good hand from his first two cards alone is pretty high, because any 8,9,10, court card, or ace as his face-down card (he has more than a 50-percent chance of having one of those cards as his second card) gives him at least 17. Conversely, if the banker turns over a 4, 5, or 6, he can't have a good hand off his first two cards unless he has another low card and gets a lucky drawing card.
The sight of the initial card may affect your decisions on marginal hands — hands ranging from 12 to 16 — when you aren't sure whether to stay or draw a card. If the banker has a 2 or 3, you're In fair shape as well because he's unlikely to have a great hand and may well have a poor one.
Of course, most hands aren't marginal at all; they have pretty clear-cut actions. You should never take a card on 17 or more (unless you have an ace and a 6 — a soft 17 that you can't go bust on), and you should never stick on 11 or less. But on hands ranging from 12 to 16, what you see in the banker's hand affects your strategy:
- If the banker has an ace, court card, 10, 9, 8, or 7, take an extra card if your total Is more than 11 but less than 17.
- If the banker has a 4, 5, or 6, stick on any total of 12 or more.
- If the banker has a 2 or 3, stick on any total of 13 or more.
Here's an example to help you see the logic behind these guidelines. Say that you have a 10 and a 6 for 16, a lousy hand. If the banker has a 10, a court card, or an ace up, you're a heavy underdog, but the odds say that your best shot is to take another card and hope to Improve your hand. If the banker has a low card up, however, your best chance of winning the hand is for the banker to bust. You should stay where you are and hope that the banker gets a bad second card (a 10 or court card) and then busts when he's forced to draw a third card.
